Evaluate these causal arguments based on Gerring’s (2005) criteria for a good causal argument (Specificity, Parsimony, Power, Precision, Scope, Differentiation, Normality, Mechanism, Consistency, Policy-Relevance):

  1. Every extra $1000 of income per person makes democracy 10% more stable, +/-8%
  2. Tall presidents are more successful
  3. Non-African countries with open-list proportional representation in the Southern hemisphere always pass their budgets late

Evaluate these pieces of evidence based on Gerring’s (2005) criteria for good causal evidence (Sample size, Variation, Representative, Independence, Comparability, Transparency, Replicability):

  1. 30 interviews with male politicians in Iraq to understand whether education levels affect how they govern
  2. Analysis of secondary data from Africa to understand if drought (measured as rainfall/\(km^2\)) causes more violence (measured as number of terrorist attacks)
  3. Representative household survey of 20,000 Mexican voters to assess whether perceptions of the economy affect voting behaviour